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Conference Finals Match-ups (By Stats)

2020-05-08

Of course we are going to look a little closer at how teams actually performed since ratings don’t always necessarily translate, these stats are all from the first and second round of this years playoffs. The ranking is from 1 to 16 between all playoff teams.

 

Leafs vs Lightning

 

Team

PDO Rank

PDO

Sh% Rank

Sh%

Sv% Rank

Sv%

Toronto Maple Leafs

9

0.994

9

8.6%

10

0.908

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

1.021

2

10.7%

7

0.914

 

Tampa appears to be playing beyond themselves with the 2ndhighest Sh% in the playoffs, which puts them as the 3rdhighest PDO team. Both teams are middle of the road in Sv% but one big consideration is Kuemper drags down Toronto’s numbers that are much closer to Tampa’s if you just put Rask up against Dubnyk.

 

Team

Goal Dif Rank

Goal Dif/
GP

ES Goal Dif Rank

ES Goal Dif/
GP

Shot Dif Rank

Shot Dif/
GP

SHB Rank

SHB/
GP

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

0.2

8

0.0

5

4.4

13

8.0

Tampa Bay Lightning

6

0.1

6

0.0

12

-6.4

3

11.0

 

Both teams are in a dead heat in goal differential and more importantly break-even during even strength play. Toronto is significantly better at outshooting their opponents at over 4 a game relative to Tampa being outshot by over 6 a game.

 

Team

PPGF-PKGA/GP Rank

PPGF-PKGA/GP
Dif

PP% Rank

PP%

PK% Rank

PK%

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

0.2

11

13%

1

92%

Tampa Bay Lightning

8

0.1

2

24%

13

80%

 

Tampa has the 2ndbest PP in the playoffs at an impressive 24%, but Toronto has the best PK in the playoffs at 92%, it will be an interesting series for sure when it comes to special teams. Toronto has an ineffective PP and the Lightning an ineffective PK to boot.

 

Team

PPA-PKA/
GP Rank

PPA-PKA/
GP

PPA Rank

PPA/
GP

PKA Rank

PKA/GP

Hits Rank

Hits/
GP

Toronto Maple Leafs

8

0.3

9

4.0

5

3.7

7

24.1

Tampa Bay Lightning

12

-0.4

12

3.5

8

3.9

4

25.0

 

Toronto draws a little more than they take and Tampa takes a little more than they draw. Tampa is one of the more physical teams in the playoffs but Toronto is only averaging 1 less hit per game.

 

Wild vs Stars

 

Team

PDO Rank

PDO

Sh% Rank

Sh%

Sv% Rank

Sv%

Minnesota Wild

1

1.045

1

12.5%

4

0.921

Dallas Stars

6

1.007

6

9.5%

8

0.912

 

Minnesota is 8-0 so not too surprising to see them as far and away the highest PDO team, this is an entire .17 higher than the #2 team, the Islanders who got defeated in the first round. Dallas is right around even which is promising for them, really the question is if Minnesota can maintain such high Sh% and Sv% going forward because they appear to be unsustainable.

 

Team

Goal Dif Rank

Goal Dif/
GP

ES Goal Dif Rank

ES Goal Dif/
GP

Shot Dif Rank

Shot Dif/
GP

SHB Rank

SHB/
GP

Minnesota Wild

1

1.5

3

0.9

8

0.6

9

8.9

Dallas Stars

3

0.8

2

0.9

3

6.2

15

7.0

 

It looks like Minnesota may have met their match here; Dallas is not too far behind in the goal differential department but has a stark lead in shot differential.

 

Team

PPGF-PKGA/GP Rank

PPGF-PKGA/GP
Dif

PP% Rank

PP%

PK% Rank

PK%

Minnesota Wild

1

1

1

25%

2

90%

Dallas Stars

11

0

13

12%

6

85%

 

Minnesota has very effective special teams with a positive differential largely due to their highly effective PP being the best in the playoffs. Dallas is seriously lagging behind in both PP and PK.
 

Team

PPA-PKA/
GP Rank

PPA-PKA/
GP

PPA Rank

PPA/
GP

PKA Rank

PKA/GP

Hits Rank

Hits/
GP

Minnesota Wild

7

0.4

8

4.0

3

3.6

1

28.4

Dallas Stars

11

-0.3

6

4.2

12

4.5

15

21.9

 

Minnesota has a positive penalty drawn differential and Dallas has an equally negative, it’s mostly Minnesota’s discipline in this department which is most surprising because they lead the league in hits.