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  • Day 45Game 101
    Wild4
    Maple Leafs2
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  • Day 46Game 102
    Wild
    Maple Leafs
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Conference Finals Match-ups (By Ratings)

2020-05-08

As part of the ratings averaging exercise I applied a 60% weighting to a team’s top 6 forwards by OV, 25% to 7 through 9, and 15% to 10 through 12 (if the team dresses a 12th). For defense the weighting was 80% to a team’s top 4 defensemen by OV and 20% to the 5th, 6thand sometimes 7thdefensemen if dressed. This allows us a little better of a lens into ice time distributions for a team’s best players. 

 

Additionally the Skaters row is an average of Forwards and Defense, so it is 50% Forwards + 50% Defense, the thought process there is even though there are twice as many forwards there would always be 3F and 2D on ice at most times, and the defense should theoretically have as much importance as the forwards.

 

Leafs vs Lightning

 

Offense

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

TOR

Forwards

74.0

74.4

73.8

75.2

Defense

63.7

74.3

65.8

67.5

Skaters

68.9

74.3

69.8

71.4

Team

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

TB

Forwards

71.3

73.1

72.8

74.4

Defense

62.6

74.1

67.0

68.2

Skaters

67.0

73.6

69.9

71.3

Difference 

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

Forwards

2.7

1.3

1.1

0.8

Defense

1.1

0.2

-1.2

-0.7

Skaters

1.9

0.7

-0.1

0.1

 

Toronto has a pretty solid lead here offensively but more so on offense where they have significantly more star power. Defense is a little closer where both teams are reliant on defensemen like Ekman-Larsson and Brodie playing beyond their ratings.

 

Defense

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

TOR

Forwards

69.0

77.8

72.0

64.7

77.8

Defense

78.7

81.3

74.9

30.0

77.4

Skaters

73.8

79.5

73.4

47.4

77.6

Team

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

TB

Forwards

68.0

76.8

68.0

66.7

83.6

Defense

73.4

85.2

80.4

30.0

75.0

Skaters

70.7

81.0

74.2

48.3

79.3

Difference 

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

Forwards

1.0

0.9

4.0

-2.0

-5.8

Defense

5.3

-3.9

-5.5

0.0

2.4

Skaters

3.1

-1.5

-0.8

-1.0

-1.7

 

Toronto has a slight lead up front up defensively and a sizeable one on defense, the same applies to Toronto’s forwards being more physical to Tampa’s defense. 

 

Goaltending/Intangibles

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

TOR

Forwards

80.5

87.6

78.9

78.0

83.9

Defense

86.0

81.0

77.3

72.7

80.5

Skaters

83.3

84.3

78.1

75.3

82.2

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

77.0

83.0

92.0

Team

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

TB

Forwards

80.4

83.6

73.8

71.1

81.7

Defense

84.8

84.7

74.1

71.9

80.0

Skaters

82.6

84.2

73.9

71.5

80.8

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

82.0

87.0

93.0

Difference 

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

Forwards

0.1

4.0

5.1

6.9

2.2

Defense

1.2

-3.7

3.2

0.8

0.5

Skaters

0.7

0.2

4.2

3.9

1.3

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

-5.0

-4.0

-1.0

 

Quality of roster is actually pretty close here besides Toronto’s slight lead on defense. Even though Kuemper is reflected here as Toronto’s highest rating starter, it is Rask who has significantly outplayed Kuemper. Both Dubnyk and Rask have put up similar numbers so far in the playoffs.

 

Wild vs Stars
 

Offense

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

MIN

Forwards

76.7

79.3

76.4

77.4

Defense

66.9

78.2

70.5

71.9

Skaters

71.8

78.7

73.4

74.6

Team

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

DAL

Forwards

74.9

74.1

74.1

74.9

Defense

64.6

74.6

65.2

66.3

Skaters

69.7

74.4

69.6

70.6

Difference 

Positions

SC

PA

PH

SK

Forwards

1.8

5.2

2.3

2.5

Defense

2.3

3.6

5.3

5.6

Skaters

2.1

4.4

3.8

4.0

 

Minnesota has a sizeable lead in every offensive rating category, to the surprise of no one, but will it matter?

 

Defense

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

MIN

Forwards

69.5

76.3

64.5

64.0

83.2

Defense

79.1

77.3

73.7

30.0

79.5

Skaters

74.3

76.8

69.1

47.0

81.4

Team

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

DAL

Forwards

71.4

73.0

64.9

71.0

83.4

Defense

79.3

78.8

75.5

30.0

77.6

Skaters

75.4

75.9

70.2

50.5

80.5

Difference 

Positions

DF

ST

CK

FO

DI

Forwards

-1.9

3.2

-0.4

-7.0

-0.2

Defense

-0.2

-1.5

-1.8

0.0

1.9

Skaters

-1.0

0.9

-1.1

-3.5

0.9

 

Dallas has better defensive forwards but the defense is about break-even between the two teams. 

 

Goaltending/Intangibles

(The difference is the higher seeds average ratings minus the lower seed)

 

Team

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

MIN

Forwards

83.0

85.3

70.3

69.8

85.0

Defense

87.4

92.0

74.0

69.4

83.0

Skaters

85.2

88.6

72.1

69.6

84.0

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

71.0

75.0

91.0

Team

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

DAL

Forwards

81.8

85.4

72.3

70.9

82.7

Defense

85.4

85.7

76.7

71.3

80.8

Skaters

83.6

85.5

74.5

71.1

81.7

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

87.0

91.0

91.0

Difference 

Positions

EN

DU

EX

LD

OV

Forwards

1.2

-0.1

-2.1

-1.2

2.3

Defense

2.0

6.3

-2.7

-1.9

2.2

Skaters

1.6

3.1

-2.4

-1.5

2.3

 

 

 

EX

LD

OV

Goalies

 

 

-16.0

-16.0

0.0

 

Again quality of roster goes to Minnesota but goaltending is dead-even between the two teams, the major difference is old man Smith’s experience over the young Gibson.